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Old 29-11-2014, 12:52
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Klendinika Klendinika is offline
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Default Olieprisen har lidt betydning for Rusland

Synes at man skal læse denne historie, hvis man tror Rusland er helt vildt ramt. så kan man tro om.

MOSCOW, November 28. /TASS/. Oil prices at about 70 U.S. dollars per barrel will have no adverse impact on Russia’s budget, Russian Minister of Economic Development Alexey Ulyukayev said in an interview with Russia’s television Channel One on Friday.
He said a decline in the rouble’s exchange rate had mitigated impacts of plunging oil prices on the country’s budget. “For us as a spending unit, for the budgetary system, the rouble-denominated oil price is much more important than the dollar component,” he said.

According to Ulyukayev, when the oil price was 110 U.S. dollars per barrel and the rouble exchange rate was 32-33 roubles per one U.S. dollar, the rouble-denominated oil price was about 3,600 roubles. “Its price in roubles is about the same now, when the oil price is 71-72 U.S. dollars per barrel and the rouble exchange rate is 49-50 roubles per dollar - the same 3,600 roubles. It means that the budget will be good and we will even have a minor surplus. And the financial system in general will be rather comfortable,” he said.

“So, the combinations of the budget structure, the combinations of the monetary policy of the Central Bank, the availability of reserve funds give us a huge margin of safety to fulfil budgetary obligations,” the minister stressed.

However he admitted that growing dollar rates would be an additional pressure on market participants and households that have considerable share of spending in foreign currency. “But those who compete with imported commodity, those who receive incomes in roubles and make spending in roubles will have extra advantages,” he noted.

Nonetheless, he said, falling oil prices and rouble devaluation will be a reason to revise economic growth forecasts to somewhat downgrade them. “But these adjustments will be within tenth of GDP percent,” he noted.

At the same time, the minister stressed that the government was committed to fulfill all of its social liabilities. “I think they will be completely fulfilled. We have a mechanism of indexing - it concerns pensioners, it concerns budget-paid employees. It will be activated for pensioners in February 2015,” he added

Fra tass

Det er udregningen i midt sektionen er der er interessant.
Da olien kostede 100 dollar og dollor-ruble kursen var 36 fik man 3600 rubler ind. Nu er olieprisen faldet og fx falder den helt ned helt ned til 60 dollar for en tønde. så kan forvent en dollar-rubel pris på 60 og på den måde får Rusland stadigvæk 3600 rubler i kassen. Da alle regninger herunder pension betales i rubler er det et nul regnestykke.

Ganske vist er det man skal købe i udlandet dyre, men det sker ofte ved at man tilpasser budget ved at neddrosle mærket. Fx er udenlandske bilmærker i Rusland faldet med ca. 20% mens Lada har solgt 7% flere biler. !!! Her øges den indenlandske produktion.

HVIS olieprisen falder til dette med at dollar/rublen kurs justering vil det betyde at rublen falder til ca. 10,2 overfor kronen hvor den pt. er 12,1 (altså for 1 dansk krone får man 8 rubler ).
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Last edited by Klendinika; 29-11-2014 at 12:56.
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